NEW (March 2018): $200,000 prize money is being offered in the current IARPA Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge, but there is a curious Prediction Tournament Paradox which says that the winners are not so likely (as you might imagine) to be the best forecasters.
NEW (November 2017): Slides from Vladas Sidoravicius short talk on the work of Hugo Duminil-Copin at the Loeve Prize ceremony.
|Semester||Course number||Topic of course||Comments|
|Spring 2018||STAT 198||Introduction to Fundamental Investing||Student-taught DeCal course; I am only the sponsor.|
|Spring 2018||STAT 205B||Probability Theory||First year graduate core course: measure-theoretic probability (second part). Link goes to old course -- will be updated..|
The non-mathematical parts of the project are being developed as a web site, intended as a more idiosyncratic counterpart to two existing sites with somewhat related themes: Understanding Uncertainty and Chance News. The current "beta version" set of pages are sufficiently incomplete and fragmented that I don't want them quoted or linked to; but if you really want to enter the maze at your own risk, start with this cover page to the beta version.
|Probability Approximations via the Poisson Clumping Heuristic||Springer, 1989||Reversible Markov Chains and Random Walks on Graphs (with Jim Fill)||Draft chapters|
|(Warning: this is nerd humor) Big Data: the substitute for Love.||If you assume that higher-profile authors get preferential treatment from journals, read this extract from the referee report on a recent paper of mine.||1976 Cambridge photo||I wish I'd said that||Mathematical humor (original!)||2011 official photo||The nine best science fiction novels you've never heard of||2007 unofficial photo and 2013 unofficial photo||Academic vita||Most ambiguous praise I received in 2009||Impressions from my year at Microsoft Research||Why my wife calls me Le Grand Fromage .......||Obituaries of my parents||In case you doubted the proposition "you can prove anything with Big Data", I have been ranked by this website as the 365,625'th most famous person in history.||..... and the Big Apple.||The three things you need to know for success in the 21st century||40 years playing volleyball; still not perfected the block.
(photo credit 555 Photography)
Here is a written interview of me by a non-mathematician. Reporting conversation in print shows that I have an embarrassingly inarticulate stream-of-consciousness speaking style -- do not take these to be my considered opinions! And here is an audio interview of me by a mathematician (Eugene Dynkin) which I haven't heard because I hate hearing myself on tape .....
Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3860
E-mail address: aldous_AT_stat.berkeley.edu