NEW (May 2018): I am retiring from Berkeley, effective end-June 2018. However I will continue with light-duty research and professional activities, and with my ongoing "Probability and the Real World" activities. So stay tuned!
NEW (March 2018): $200,000 prize money is being offered in the current IARPA Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge, but there is a curious Prediction Tournament Paradox which says that the winners are not so likely (as you might imagine) to be the best forecasters. So maybe my performance in the 2017 HFC Challenge pre-season was just luck.
The non-mathematical parts of the project are being developed as a web site, intended as a more idiosyncratic counterpart to two existing sites with somewhat related themes: Understanding Uncertainty and Chance News. The current "beta version" set of pages are sufficiently incomplete and fragmented that I don't want them quoted or linked to; but if you really want to enter the maze at your own risk, start with this cover page to the beta version.
|Probability Approximations via the Poisson Clumping Heuristic||Springer, 1989||Reversible Markov Chains and Random Walks on Graphs (with Jim Fill)||Draft chapters|
|(Warning: this is nerd humor) Big Data: the substitute for Love.||If you assume that higher-profile authors get preferential treatment from journals, read this extract from the referee report on a recent paper of mine.||1976 Cambridge photo||I wish I'd said that||Mathematical humor (original!)||2011 official photo||The nine best science fiction novels you've never heard of||2007 unofficial photo and 2013 unofficial photo||Academic vita||Most ambiguous praise I received in 2009||Impressions from my year at Microsoft Research||Why my wife calls me Le Grand Fromage .......||Obituaries of my parents||In case you doubted the proposition "you can prove anything with Big Data", I have been ranked by this website as the 365,625'th most famous person in history.||..... and the Big Apple.||The three things you need to know for success in the 21st century||40 years playing volleyball; still not perfected the block.
(photo credit 555 Photography)
Here is a written interview of me by a non-mathematician. Reporting conversation in print shows that I have an embarrassingly inarticulate stream-of-consciousness speaking style -- do not take these to be my considered opinions! And here is an audio interview of me by a mathematician (Eugene Dynkin) which I haven't heard because I hate hearing myself on tape .....
Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3860
E-mail address: aldous_AT_stat.berkeley.edu