I have retired from Berkeley, effective end-June 2018. However I will continue with light-duty research and professional activities. In particular I have been updating and expanding my open research problems page. But I am focussing more on my ongoing "Probability and the Real World" activities, below.
(January 2020): Because of my interest in probability assessments for the medium-long term future I always look at the annual Global Risks Report. Here is the entire report and here is the key graphic I discuss in class and popular talks. Looking at predictions from 5 or 10 or 15 years ago gives some sense of how accurate such consensus predictions have been. Unfortunately neither the likelihoods nor the economic impacts are honestly quantitative; they just ask participants to assess "on a scale of 1 to 5" with only verbal descriptions of those numerical meanings. Note that the risks assessed as most serious are climate change related.
(December 2019): I have written both a longer PDF review and a shorter amazon.com review of Ian Stewart's Do Dice Play God: The Mathematics of Uncertainty.
(December 2019): Analogous to Wikipedia's nice "zooming in" demonstration of Brownian scaling, Yucheng Wang has made this MP4 demonstration of the emergence of scale-invariance when we grow a network in the plane by adding random points and using a scale-invariant rule for linking them to the existing network. See this page for explanation.
(12 January 2020):
serious contender principle is working pretty well so far for the
2020 Democratic presidential nomination: maximum Predictit prices so far are
(August 2019): A coincidence question. Almost all probability-related questions on Quora are elementary or inane, but I noted a recent one (ironically, soon deleted) that was more interesting to me.
What are the odds that at least 2 players of a 128 players tournament face each other 2 consecutive years?
Here is my brief analysis.
For many years I supervised these Undergraduate Research Projects.
|Probability Approximations via the Poisson Clumping Heuristic||Springer, 1989|
|Reversible Markov Chains and Random Walks on Graphs (with Jim Fill)||Draft chapters|
E-mail address: firstname.lastname@example.org