Note that descriptions of the projects that resulted in these papers are available on my research page.

The published papers listed below are categorized as either statistically-focused papers or scientifically-focused analyses.


O'Brien, T., M.D. Risser, J.P. O'Brien, C. Patricola, C.J. Paciorek, H. Krishnan, A. Rhoades, and W. Collins. Chance rather than trends in the unusual 2017 California wet season. Submitted to Water Resources Research.

Statistical Methodology

Michaud, N., P. de Valpine, D. Turek, and C.J. Paciorek. 2019+. Sequential Monte Carlo methods in the NIMBLE R package. Journal of Statistical Software, accepted.

Risser, M.D., C.J. Paciorek, T.A. O'Brien, M.F. Wehner, and W.D. Collins. 2019+. Detected changes in precipitation extremes at their native scales derived from in situ measurements. Journal of Climate, accepted. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0077.1

Risser, M.D., C.J. Paciorek, M.F. Wehner, T.A. O'Brien, and W.D. Collins. 2019. A probabilistic gridded product for daily precipitation extremes over the United States. Climate Dynamics, 53: 2517-2538. doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04636-0.

Risser, M.D., C.J. Paciorek, D. Stone. 2019. Spatially-dependent multiple testing under model misspecification, with application to detection of anthropogenic influence on extreme climate events. JASA Applications and Case Studies 114: 61-78. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2018.1451335.

Paciorek C.J., D.A. Stone, and M.F. Wehner. 2018. Quantifying statistical uncertainty in the attribution of human influence on severe weather. Weather and Climate Extremes 20: 69-80. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2018.01.002.

de Valpine, P., D. Turek, C.J. Paciorek, C. Anderson-Bergman, D. Temple Lang, and R. Bodik. 2017. Programming with models: writing statistical algorithms for general model structures with NIMBLE. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 26: 403-413. doi: 10.1080/10618600.2016.1172487.

Turek, D., P. de Valpine, C.J. Paciorek and C. Anderson-Bergman. 2017. Automated parameter blocking for efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Bayesian Analysis 12: 465-490. doi: 10.1214/16-BA1008.

Turek, D., P. de Valpine, and C.J. Paciorek. 2016. Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for hierarchical hidden Markov models. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 23: 549-564. doi: 10.1007/s10651-016-0353-z.

Jeon, S., C.J. Paciorek, and M.F. Wehner. 2016. Quantile-based bias correction and uncertainty quantification of extreme event attribution statements. Weather and Climate Extremes 12: 24-32. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2016.02.001.

Finucane, M.M., Rowley, C.F., Paciorek, C.J., Essex, M., and Pagano, M. 2016. Estimating the prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance using pooled samples. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 25: 917-935. doi: 10.1177/0962280212473514.

Finucane, M.M, C.J. Paciorek, G.A. Stevens, and M. Ezzati. 2015. Semiparametric Bayesian density estimation with disparate data sources: A meta-analysis of global childhood undernutrition (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 110: 889-901. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2014.937487.

Paciorek, C.J., B. Lipshitz, W. Zhuo, Prabhat, C.G. Kaufman, and R.C. Thomas. 2015. Parallelizing Gaussian process calculations in R. Journal of Statistical Software 63(10): 1-23. doi: 10.18637/jss.v063.i10.

Bliznyuk, N., C.J. Paciorek, J. Schwartz and B. Coull. 2014. Nonlinear predictive latent process models for integrating spatio-temporal exposure data from multiple sources. Annals of Applied Statistics 8: 1538-1560. doi: 10.1214/14-AOAS737.

Finucane, M.M., C.J. Paciorek, G. Danaei, and M. Ezzati. 2014. Bayesian estimation of population-level trends in measures of health status. Statistical Science 29: 18-25, special issue on 'Big Bayes Stories: A Collection of Vignettes'. doi:10.1214/13-STS427.

Szpiro, A.A. and C.J. Paciorek. 2013. Measurement error in two-stage analyses, with application to air pollution epidemiology (with discussion). Environmetrics 24: 501-517. doi:10.1002/env.2233.

Paciorek, C.J. 2013. Spatial models for point and areal data using Markov random fields on a fine grid. Electronic Journal of Statistics 7: 946-972. doi:10.1214/13-EJS791.

Paciorek, C.J. 2012. Combining spatial information sources while accounting for systematic errors in proxies. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics) 61: 429-451. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9876.2011.01035.x.

Szpiro, A.A., Paciorek, C.J., and Sheppard, L. 2011. Does more accurate exposure prediction improve health effect estimates? Epidemiology 22:680-685. doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3182254cc6. PMCID: PMC3195520.

Paciorek, C.J. 2010. The importance of scale for spatial-confounding bias and precision of spatial regression estimators. Statistical Science 25:107-125. doi:10.1214/10-STS326. PMCID: PMC3082155.

Paciorek, C.J., and J.S. McLachlan. 2009. Mapping ancient forests: Bayesian inference for spatio-temporal trends in forest composition. Journal of the American Statistical Association 104:608-622. doi:10.1198/jasa.2009.0026. PMCID: PMC2744074.

Paciorek, C.J., Yanosky, J.D., Puett, R.C., Laden, F., and H.H. Suh. 2009. Practical large-scale spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations. Annals of Applied Statistics 3:370-397. doi:10.1214/08-AOAS204.

Gryparis, A., Paciorek, C.J., Zeka, A., Schwartz, J., and B.A. Coull. 2009. Measurement error caused by spatial misalignment in environmental epidemiology. Biostatistics 10:258-274. doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxn033. PMCID: PMC2733173.

Paciorek, C.J. 2007b. Bayesian smoothing with Gaussian processes using Fourier basis functions in the spectralGP package. Journal of Statistical Software 19(2). PMCID: PMC2156645.

Paciorek, C.J. 2007a. Computational techniques for spatial logistic regression with large datasets. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 51:3631-3653. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2006.11.008. PMCID PMC2350194.

Paciorek, C.J. and M.J. Schervish. 2006. Spatial modelling using a new class of nonstationary covariance functions. Environmetrics 17:483-506. doi:10.1002/env.785. PMCID: PMC2157553.

Paciorek, C.J. 2006. Misinformation in the conjugate prior for the linear model with implications for free-knot spline modelling. Bayesian Analysis 1:375-383. doi:10.1214/06-BA114. PMCID: PMC2186203.

Ventura, V., Paciorek, C.J., and J.S. Risbey. 2004. Controlling the proportion of falsely-rejected hypotheses when conducting multiple tests with climatological data. Journal of Climate 17:4343-4356.

Paciorek, C.J., and M.J. Schervish. 2004. Nonstationary covariance functions for Gaussian process regression. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 16:273-280.


Dawson, A., C.J. Paciorek, S. Goring, S. Jackson, J. McLachlan, and J. Williams. 2019. Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States. Ecology 100: e02856. DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2856.

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. 2019. Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic. Nature 569: 260–264. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1171-x.

Pall, P., C. Patricola, M. Wehner, D. Stone, C.J. Paciorek, W. Collins. 2017. Diagnosing conditional anthropogenic contributions to heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013. Weather and Climate Extremes 17: 1-6. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.03.004.

Risser, M.D., D.A. Stone, C.J. Paciorek, M.F. Wehner, and O. Angelil. 2017. Quantifying the effect of interannual ocean variability on the attribution of extreme climate events to human influence. Climate Dynamics 49: 3051-3073. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3492-x.

Angelil, O., D. Stone, M. Wehner, C.J. Paciorek, H. Krishnan and W. Collins. 2017. An independent assessment of anthropogenic attribution statements for recent extreme temperature and rainfall events. Journal of Climate 30: 5-16. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0077.1.

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. 2016. Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19.1 million participants. The Lancet 389: 37-55. DOI:

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. 2016. The height of the world - A century of trends in adult human height. eLife 2016;5:e13410. DOI:

Goring, S.J., J.W. Wlliams, D.J. Mladenoff, C.V. Cogbill, S. Record, C.J. Paciorek, S.T. Jackson, M.C. Dietze, J.H. Matthes, and J.S. McLachlan. 2016. Novel and lost forests in the upper Midwestern United States, from new estimates of settlement-era composition, stem density, and biomass. PLoS ONE 11(12): e0151935. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0151935.

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. 2016. Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants. The Lancet 387: 1513-1530. DOI:

Paciorek, C.J., S.J. Goring, A.L. Thurman, C.V. Cogbill, J.W. Williams, D.J. Mladenoff, J.A. Peters, J. Zhu, and J.S. McLachlan. 2016. Statistically-estimated tree composition for the northeastern United States at the time of Euro-American settlement. PLoS ONE 11(2): e0150087. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0150087.

Dawson, A., C.J. Paciorek, S.J. Goring, J.W. Williams, S.T. Jackson, and J.S. McLachlan. 2016. Quantifying pollen-vegetation relationships to reconstruct ancient forests using 19th-century forest composition and pollen data. Quaternary Science Reviews 137: 156-175. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.01.012.

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. 2016. Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants. The Lancet 387: 1377-1396. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X.

Wehner, M.F., K.A. Reed, F. Li, Prabhat, J. Bacmeister, C.-T. Chen, C.J. Paciorek, P.J. Gleckler, K.R. Sperber, W.D. Collins, A. Gettelman, and C. Jablonowski. 2014. The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 6: 980-997. DOI: 10.1002/2013MS000276.

Yanosky, J.D., C.J. Paciorek, F. Laden, J.E. Hart, R.C. Puett, D. Liao and H.H. Suh. 2014. Spatio-temporal modeling of particulate air pollution in the conterminous United States using geographic and meteorological predictors. Environmental Health 13:63. doi:10.1186/1476-069X-13-63.

Paciorek, C.J., G.A. Stevens, M.M. Finucane, and M. Ezzati. 2013. Urban living, urbanisation, and children's height and weight in low- and middle-income countries. The Lancet Global Health 1:e300-e309. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(13)70109-8.

Stevens, G.A., M.M. Finucane, L.M. De-Regil, C.J. Paciorek, S.R. Flaxman, F. Branca, J.P. Pena-Rosas, Z.A. Bhutta, and M. Ezzati. 2013. Global, regional, and national trends in haemoglobin and total and severe anaemia prevalence in children and pregnant and non-pregnant women. The Lancet Global Health 1:e16-e25. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(13)70001-9.

Peterson, T., R.R. Heim, Jr., R. Hirsch, D.P. Kaiser, H. Brooks, N.S. Diffenbaugh, R.M. Dole, J.P. Giovannettone, K. Guirguis, T.R. Karl, R.W. Katz, K. Kunkel, D. Lettenmaier, G.J. McCabe, C.J. Paciorek, K.R. Ryberg, S. Schubert, V.B.S. Silva, B.C. Stewart, A.V. Vecchia, G. Villarini, R.S. Vose, J. Walsh, M. Wehner, D. Wolock, K. Wolter, C.A. Woodhouse, and D. Wuebbles. 2013. Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94: 821–834. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00066.1.

Danaei, G., Singh, G.M., Paciorek, C.J., Finucane, M.M., Lin, J.K., Farzadfar, F., Stevens, G.A., Cowan, M.J., Riley, L.M., Lu, Y., Rao, M., and M. Ezzati. 2013. The global cardiovascular risk transition: associations of four metabolic risk factors with macroeconomic variables in 1980 and 2008. Circulation 127: 1493-1502. doi:10.1161/​CIRCULATIONAHA.113.001470.

Kunkel, K.E., Karl, T.R., Brooks, H., Kossin, J., Lawrimore, J.H., Arndt, D., Bosart, L., Changnon, D., Cutter, S.L., Doesken, N., Emanuel, K., Groisman, P.Y., Katz, R.W., Knutson, T., O'Brien, J., Paciorek, C.J., Peterson, T.C., Redmon, K., Robinson, D., Trapp, J., Vose, R., Weaver, S., Wehner, M., Wolter, K., Wuebbles, D. 2013. Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: State of knowledge. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94: 499-514. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1.

Stevens, G.A., Singh, G.M., Lu, Y., Danaei, G., Lin, J.K., Finucane, M.M., Bahalim, A.N., McIntire, R.K., Gutierrez, H.R., Cowan, M., Paciorek, C.J., Riley, L., and M. Ezzati. 2012. National, regional, and global trends in adult overweight and obesity prevalences. Population Health Metrics 10:22. doi:10.1186/1478-7954-10-22.

Rooney, M.S., Arku, R.E., Dionisio, K.L., Paciorek, C.J., Friedman, A.B., Carmichael, H., Zhou, Z., Hughes, A.F., Vallarino, J., Mensha-Agyei, S., Spengler, J.D., and M. Ezzati. 2012. Spatial patterns of particulate matter sources and pollution in four communities in Accra, Ghana. Science of the Total Environment 435-436: 107-114. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.06.077.

Goring, S., Williams, J.W., Blois, J.L., Jackson, S.T., Paciorek, C.J., Booth, R.K., Marlon, J.R., Blaauw, M., and J.A. Christen. 2012. Deposition times in the northeastern United States during the Holocene: establishing valid priors for Bayesian age models. Quaternary Science Reviews 48: 54-60.

Stevens, G.A., Finucane, M.M., Paciorek, C.J., Flaxman, S.R., White, R.A., Donner, A.J., and Ezzati, M. 2012. Trends in mild, moderate, and severe stunting and underweight, and progress towards MDG 1 in 141 developing countries: a systematic analysis. The Lancet 380: 824-834. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60647-3.

Paciorek, C.J. and Y. Liu. 2012. Assessment and statistical modeling of the relationship betwen remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth and PM2.5. Health Effects Institute Research Report 167 (peer-reviewed).

Lin, H.-H., Shin, S.S., Contreras, C., Asencios, L., Paciorek, C.J., and T. Cohen. 2012. Use of spatial information to predict multidrug resistance in tuberculosis patients, Peru. Emerging Infectious Diseases 18: 811-813.

Brochu, P.J., Yanosky, J.D., Paciorek, C.J., Schwartz, J., Chen, J.T., Herrick, R.F., and H.H. Suh. 2011. Particulate air pollution and socioeconomic position in rural and urban areas of the northeastern United States. American Journal of Public Health 101: S224-S230. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2011.300232.

Zwack L, Paciorek C.J., Spengler J., and J. Levy. 2011. Characterizing local traffic contributions to particulate air pollution in street canyons using mobile monitoring techniques. Atmospheric Environment 45: 2507-2514. doi:10.1016/jatmosenv.2011.02.035.

Zwack L, Paciorek C.J., Spengler J., and J. Levy. 2011. Modeling spatial patterns of traffic-related air pollutants in complex urban terrain. Environmental Health Perspectives 119: 852-859. doi:10.1289/ehp.1002519.

Danaei, G., Finucane, M.M., Lu, Y., Singh, G., Cowan, M.J., Paciorek, C.J., Lin, J.K., Farzadfar, F., Khang, Y.-H., Stevens, G.A., Rao, M., Ali, M.K., Riley, L.M., Robinson, C.A., and M. Ezzati. 2011. National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: Systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2.7 million participants. The Lancet 378: 31-40. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60679-X.

Danaei, G., Finucane, M.M., Lin, J.K., Singh, G.M., Paciorek, C.J., Cowan, M.J., Farzadfar, F., Stevens, G.A., Lim, S.S., Riley, L.M., and M. Ezzati. 2011. National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: Systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5.4 million participants. The Lancet 377: 568-577. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62036-3.

Farzadfar, F., Finucane, M.M., Danaei, G., Paciorek, C.J., Pelizzari, P., Cowan, M.J., Singh, G.M., Lin, J.K., Stevens, G.A., Riley, L.M., and M. Ezzati. 2011. National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: Systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3.0 million participants. The Lancet 377: 578-586. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62038-7.

Finucane, M.M., Stevens, G.A., Cowan, M., Danaei, G., Lin, J.K., Paciorek, C.J., Singh, G.M., Gutierrez, H.R., Lu, Y., Bahalim, A.N., Farzadfar, F., Riley, L.M., and M. Ezzati. 2011. National, regional, and global trends in body mass index since 1980: Systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9.1 million participants. The Lancet 377:557-567. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62037-5.

Lin, H., S. Shin, Blaya, J.A., Zhang, Z., Cegielski, P., Contreras, C., Asencios, L., Bonilla, C., Bayona, J., Paciorek, C.J, and T. Cohen. 2011. Assessing spatiotemporal patterns of multidrug-resistant and drug-sensitive tuberculosis in a South American setting. Epidemiology and Infection 139: 1784-1793. doi:10.1017/S0950268810002797.

Baxter, L.K., Wright, R.J., Paciorek, C.J., Laden, F., Suh, H.H., and J.I. Levy. 2010. Effects of exposure measurement error in the analysis of health effects from traffic-related air pollution. Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology 20:101-111. doi:10.1038/jes.2009.5. PMCID: PMC3139251.

Puett, R.C., Hart, J.E., Yanosky, J.D., Paciorek, C.J., Schwartz, J., Suh, H., Speizer, F.E., and F. Laden. 2009. Chronic fine and coarse particulate exposure, mortality and coronary heart disease in the Nurses' Health Study. Environmental Health Perspectives 117:1697-1701. doi:10.1289/ehp.0900572. PMCID: PMC2679594.

Paciorek, C.J., and Y. Liu. 2009. Limitations of remotely-sensed aerosol as a spatial proxy for fine particulate matter. Environmental Health Perspectives 117:904-909. doi:10.1289/ehp.0800360. PMCID: PMC2702404.

Liu, Y., Paciorek, C.J., and P. Koutrakis. 2009. Estimating regional spatial and temporal variability of PM2.5 concentrations using satellite data, meteorology, and land use information. Environmental Health Perspectives 117:886–892. doi:10.1289/ehp.0800123. PMCID: PMC2702401.

Yanosky, J.D., Paciorek C.J. and H.H. Suh. 2009. Predicting chronic fine and coarse particulate exposures using spatio-temporal models for the northeastern and midwestern US. Environmental Health Perspectives 117:522-529. doi:10.1289/ehp.11692. PMCID: PMC2679594.

Puett, R.C., Schwartz, J., Hart, J.E., Yanosky, J.D., Speizer, F.E., Suh, H.H., Paciorek, C.J., Neas, L. and F. Laden. 2008. Chronic particulate exposure, mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in the Nurses' Health Study. American Journal of Epidemiology 168:1161-1168. doi:10.1093/aje/kwn232. PMCID: PMC2732957.

Paciorek, C.J., Liu, Y., Moreno-Macias, H. and S. Kondragunta. 2008. Spatio-temporal associations between GOES aerosol optical depth retrievals and ground-level PM2.5. Environmental Science and Technology 42:5800-5806. doi:10.1021/es703181j.

Yanosky, J.D., Paciorek, C.J., Schwartz, J., Laden, F., Puett, R., and H.H. Suh. 2008. Spatio-temporal modeling of chronic PM10 exposure for the Nurses' Health Study. Atmospheric Environment 42:4047-4062. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.01.044. PMCID: PMC2705904.

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Baxter, L.K., Clougherty, J.E., Paciorek, C.J., Wright, R.J., and J.I. Levy. 2007. Predicting residential indoor concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, fine particulate matter, and elemental carbon using questionnaire and geographic information system based data. Atmospheric Environment 41:6561-6571. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.04.027. PMCID: PMC2760735.

Ickes, K., C.J. Paciorek, and S. Thomas. 2005. Impacts of nest construction by native pigs (Sus scrofa) on saplings in a lowland Malaysian rain forest. Ecology 86:1540-1547.

Paciorek, C.J., J.S. Risbey, V. Ventura, and R.D.Rosen. 2002. Multiple indices of Northern Hemisphere Cyclone Activity, Winters 1949-1999. Journal of Climate 15:1573-1590.

Paciorek, C.J., R. Condit, S.P. Hubbell, and R.B. Foster. 2000. The demographics of resprouting in tree and shrub species of a moist tropical forest. Journal of Ecology 88(5):765-777.

Paciorek, C.J., Moyer, B.R., Levin, R.A., and Halpern, S.L. 1995. Pollen consumption by hummingbird flower mite Proctolaelaps kirmsei and possible fitness effects on Hamelia patens. Biotropica 27:258-262. (author order determined by lot)

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Last updated: February 2020.