[z] means the paper is somewhat relevant to the topic of Lecture z in the 2016 course,
and listed on the Links, books and papers mentioned in lectures page.
[3] means the paper is listed under that heading on the Possible topics for future lectures page.
Citation Statistics (a critique) by Robert Adler et al.
Streaky hitting in baseball by Jim Albert. [3]
Stochastic Models and Descriptive Statistics for Phylogenetic Trees by David Aldous. [17]
Mathematical probability foundations of dynamic sports ratings (draft paper by David Aldous). [3]
Waves in a Spatial Queue: Stop-and-Go at Airport Security by David Aldous. [F: MiscModels]
Shuffling Cards and Stopping Times by David Aldous and Persi Diaconis. [13]
When Can One Test an Explanation? Compare and Contrast Benford's Law and the Fuzzy CLT by David Aldous and Tung Pham. [13]
Connected Spatial Networks over Random Points and a Route-Length Statistic by David Aldous and Julian Shun. [15]
On worrying about the future by David Aldous. [12]
Probability models on horse-race outcomes by Mukhtar Ali. [3]
Toy models for macroevolutionary patterns and trends by Bradly Alicea and Richard Gordon. [17]
Some people have all the luck by Richard Arratia et al. [F: MiscModels]
On options and epidemics by Ian Ayres. [F: Viewpoint]
Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases by Duygu Balcan et al. [16]
A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs by S. Bansal and B. Pourbohloul and L. A. Meyers. [19]
Spatial networks by Marc Barthelemy. [15]
Trailing the dovetail shuffle to its lair by Dave Bayer and Persi Diaconis. [3, 13]
Redefine statistical significance by Daniel Benjamin and many others.
Regular rates of popular culture change reflect random copying by R. Alexander Bentley et al. [17]
Getting Your Eye In: A Bayesian Analysis of Early Dismissals in Cricket by Brendon Brewer. [3]
Cancer kills three 9/11 firefighters on the same day from BBC News. [6]
Epidemic modelling: aspects where stochasticity matters by Tom Britton and David Lindenstrand. [16]
In-season prediction of batting averages: A field test of empirical Bayes and Bayes methodologies by Lawrence D. Brown. [3]
Euthanizing the Value of a Statistical Life by Trudy Ann Cameron. [4]
A model of human cooperation in social dilemmas by Valerio Capraro. [7]
Early Round Bluffing in Poker by California Jack Cassidy. [7]
Web Literacy For Student Fact-Checkers by Mike Caulfield.
Algorithms, games, and evolution by Erick Chastain et al. [17]
A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis from the CIA site. [5]
Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks by Milan Cirkovic and Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom. [12]
Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools by Bryan Clair and David Letscher. [3]
Probability distributions and maximum entropy by Keith Conrad. [11]
Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google by Bo Cowgill and Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. [9]
Was 2016 especially dangerous for celebrities? An empirical analysis by Jason Crease. [6]
The Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos by Rachel Croson and James Sundali.
The Belief in Good Luck Scale by Peter R. Darke and Jonathan L. Freedman. [8]
Life, chance and life chances by Lorraine Daston. [F: Viewpoint]
Evolution of direct reciprocity under uncertainty can explain human generosity in one-shot encounters by Andrew W. Delton and Max M. Krasnow and Leda Cosmides and John Tooby. (extra material). [7]
Unifying Practical Uncertainty Representations by Sebastien Destercke and Didier Dubois and Eric Chojnacki.
Statistical problems in ESP research by Persi Diaconis. [F: Statistics]
Dynamical bias in the coin toss by Persi Diaconis et al. [13]
Analysis of casino shelf shuffling machines by Persi Diaconis et al. [13]
Methods for Studying Coincidences by Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller. [6]
50 years of Data Science by David Donoho.
Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research by Anna Dreber et al (summary here). [9]
Statistics-free sports prediction by Alexander Dubbs. [3]
Cancer Modeling: A Personal Perspective by Rick Durrett.
Exact Solution for a Metapopulation Version of Schelling's Model by Richard Durrett and Yuan Zhang. [18]
Bolts from the blue (gamma ray bursts) from The Economist. [12]
{Prediction markets: history and revival} from The Economist. [9]
Are results in top journals to be trusted? from The Economist.
Is efficient-market theory becoming more efficient? from The Economist. [2]
Improve your life by making huge decisions with a coin toss from The Economist.
Vegas sportsbooks take hit on big day for NFL favorites by ESPN. [3]
Teaching a University Course on the Mathematics of Gambling by Stewart N. Ethier and Fred M. Hoppe.
To Buy or Not to Buy: Mining Airfare Data to Minimize Ticket Purchase Price by Oren Etzioni et al.
Comparing information without leaking it by Ronald Fagin and Moni Naor and Peter Winkler. [F: Algorithms]
Market Risk Premium used in 2010 by Analysts and Companies: a survey with 2,400 answers by Pablo Fernandez and Javier del Campo. [2]
Valuation and Common Sense by Pablo Fernandez. [2]
{Philosophy of} Probability by Branden Fitelson, Alan Hajek, and Ned Hall.
The Evolution of Superstitious and Superstition-like Behaviour by Kevin Foster and Hanna Kokko. [17]
Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty by Craig R. Fox and Gülden Ülkümen. [20]
Washington Scandals and Baby Names by Charles Franklin. [14]
Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence by Jeffrey A. Friedman and Richard Zeckhauser. [5]
International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War by John Gaddis. [5]
What is the probability your vote will make a difference? by Andrew Gelman and Nate Silver and Aaron Edlin. [19]
World population stabilization unlikely this century by Patrick Gerland et al.
Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics by Gerd Gigerenzer et al. [4]
A simple generative model of collective online behavior by James Gleeson et al. [18]
Modelling football match results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting by John Goddard and Ioannis Asimakopoulos. [3]
Ten Little Treasures of Game Theory and Ten Intuitive Contradictions by Jacob K. Goeree and Charles A. Holt. [7]
The Favorite-Longshot Midas by Etan A. Green, Haksoo Lee and David Rothschild.
How to see into the future by Tim Harford. [5]
Alcohol: Balancing Risks and Benefits by Harvard School of Public Health. [4]
Evaluating Trading Strategies By Campbell Harvey and Yan Liu. [2]
Statistics of deadly quarrels by Brian Hayes.
Self-enforcing strategies to deter free-riding in the climate change mitigation game and other repeated public good games by Jobst Heitzig, Kai Lessmann, and Yong Zou. [7]
Amazon book reviews by Robert Huang.
Evolutionary cycles of cooperation and defection by Lorens A. Imhof, Drew Fudenberg and Martin A. Nowak. [7]
Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [F: Communicating]
Preparing for Future Catastrophes. International Risk Governance Council, Lausanne. [12]
Social Networks and the Diffusion of Economic Behavior by Matthew O. Jackson and Leeat Yariv. [18]
Feeding the world: getting the data right for decision-making by Molly Jahn. [12]
Picking Winners? Investment Consultants' Recommendations of Fund Managers by Tim Jenkinson, Howard Jones and Jose Martinez.
Ten Thousand Wedges: Biodiversity, Natural Selection and Random Change by Steve Jones. [17]
What are the open problems in Bayesian statistics? by Michael Jordan.
Delusions of Big Data: an interview with Michael Jordan.
Lottery winners: The myth and reality by H. Roy Kaplan. [14]
How accurate are the United Nations world population projections? by Nico Keilman.
A Markov model of a limit order book: threholds, recurrence and trading strategies by Frank Kelly and Elena Yudovina.
Predicting the future (1993) by Kevin Kelly and Brian Eno. [5]
An Analysis of the Basketball Endgame: When to Foul When Trailing and Leading by Franklin H. J. Kenter. [3]
Assessing forensic evidence by computing belief functions -- theory and applications by Timber Kerkvliet and Ronald Meester.
You Name It -- How Memory and Delay Govern First Name Dynamics by David A. Kessler et al. [14]
Fancy Meeting You Here! by G.J. Kirby. [6]
Professionals do not play minimax: evidence from Major League Baseball and the National Football League by Kenneth Kovash and Steven D. Levitt. [7]
The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather-Related Decision Making by Jared LeClerc and Susan Joslyn. [4]
Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system by Timothy Lenton et al. [16]
Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets? by Steven D. Levitt.
Reading About the Financial Crisis: A 21-Book Review by Andrew W. Lo.
Good and bad properties of the Kelly criterion by Leonard C. MacLean, Edward O. Thorp and William T. Ziemba. [2]
The World Economy by Angus Madison. A huge compendium of historical data.
Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence by David Mandel and Alan Barnes. [5]
The combined effect on survival of four main behavioural risk factors for non-communicable diseases by Eva Martin-Diener et al. [4]
The birth-death-mutation process: A new paradigm for fat tailed distributions by Yosef E. Maruvka, David A. Kessler and Nadav M. Shnerb. [F: MiscModels]
The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza by Stefano Merler and Marco Ajelli. [16]
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition by Don Moore et al. [5]
Quantifying probabilistic expressions by Frederick Mosteller and Cleo Youtz. [F: Communicating]
Physics for Future Presidents by Richard Muller. This is not the book but his article about his Berkeley course. [*].
The dawning of the age of stochasticity by David Mumford. [F: Viewpoint]
Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change from National Academies Press. [12]
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds by National Intelligence Council. [5]
From Consolation to Commitment: Philosophy and Theology’s role in meeting tomorrow's Public Policy challenges by Michael Oborne. [F: Viewpoint]
Future Global Shocks by the OECD (2011). [5]
Shifting Gear: policy challenges for the next 50 years by the OECD (2014). [5]
Testing game theory in the field: Swedish LUPI lottery games by R. Ostling et al. [7]
The statistical laws of popularity: universal properties of the box-office dynamics of motion pictures by Raj Kumar Pan and Sitabhra Sinha.
review by David Steinsaltz of the book The Quants by Scott Patterson.
A Markovian model for association football possession and its outcomes by Javier López Pena. [3]
Global Catastrophic Risks (book introduction) by Martin J. Rees and Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic. [12]
The psychology and philosophy of luck by D. Pritchard and M. Smith. [8]
The psychology of the near miss by R.L. Reid. [6]
Climate Models as Economic Guides: Scientific Challenge or Quixotic Quest? by
Andrea Saltelli et al. [F: Critique]
Dynamic Models of Segregation
by Thomas C. Schelling.
Confidence, Consensus and the Uncertainty Cops: Tackling Risk Management in Climate Change
by Stephen Schneider.
Sudden Infant Death or Murder?
A Royal Confusion About
Probabilities by
Neven Sesardic.
Visual Analysis of Large Heterogeneous Social
Networks by Semantic and Structural Abstraction by
Zeqian Shen, Kwan-liu Ma, and Tina Eliassi-Rad.
Inside the Outliers by Michael Shermer. [8]
To Explain or to Predict? by Galit Shmueli.
Lucky Names: Demography, Surnames and Chance
by Nadav Shnerb, Yossi Maruvka and David Kessler.
Should Travelers Avoid Flying Airlines
That Have Had Crashes in the Past? by Nate Silver. [6]
Bacon sandwiches and middle-class drinkers:
the risk of communicating risk by David Spiegelhalter. [4]
Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future by David Spiegelhalter
and Mike Pearson and Ian Short. [4]
http://www.amstat.org/publications/JSE/v5n2/datasets.starr.html
Nonrandom Risk: The 1970 Draft Lottery
Tracing evolutionary links between species by Mike Steel. [17]
A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores by Hal S. Stern. [3]
Critical Truths About Power Laws by Michael P. H. Stumpf and Mason A. Porter. [F: Critiques]
Precautions and nature by Cass Sunstein. [F: Viewpoint]
The Value of a Statistical Life: Some Clarifications and Puzzles by Cass Sunstein. [4]
On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure With Implications For Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research by Nassim Taleb and Philip E. Tetlock. [5]
The ethics of uncertainty by Christof Tannert, Horst-Dietrich Elvers and Burkhard Jandrig. [F: Viewpoint]
E pluribus unum: From Complexity, Universality by Terence Tao. [16]
Music and Probability (book) by David Temperley.
Unpredictability and chance in scientific progress by John Meurig Thomas. [F: Viewpoint]
Mutual fund ratings and future performance from Vanguard. [2]
On Probabilistic Excitement of Sports Games by Jan Vecer et al. [3]
Fermi's paradox, extraterrestrial life and the future of humanity: a Bayesian analysis by Vilhelm Verendel and Olle Haggstrom. [12]
Irrational Thinking Among Slot Machine Players by Michael B. Walker.
Forecasting elections with non-representative polls by Wei Wang et al.
The power and weakness of randomness (when you are short on time) by Avi Wigderson. [F: Algorithms]
Zipf's law holds for phrases, not words by Jake Williams et al.
Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball by Justin Wolfers. [3]
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities by Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz. [9]
Annual Global Risks Reports 2008 2011 2014. World Economic Forum. [5]
Social consensus through the influence of committed minorities by J.Xie et al. [18]
Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks by Eliezer Yudkowsky. [10,12]
Learning to live with not-so-efficient markets by Luigi Zingales. [2].
Can Random Coin Flips Speed Up a Computer? by David Zuckerman. [F: Algorithms]
Winning the 1.6 billion Powerball prize is as likely as ..... (summary) and article 1 and article 2 and article 3. [6]