STAT 157: Links, books and papers mentioned in lectures

Lecture 1: Everyday perception of chance.

Links.

[anchor data] Searches for "chance of" in Bing
Annotated list of contexts where we perceive chance
References to chance in micro-blogs - Examples by topic
References to chance in blogs
Illustrative hypothetical examples from textbooks
Everyday Life in a Philosophy Department?
Taxonomies of chance, risk and unpredictability.
Which math probability predictions are actually verifiable?
Implicit and explicit lists of representative examples of chance
books on Big Data

Books and papers. I don't know any books or papers in the spirit of this lecture.

Lecture 2: The Kelly criterion for favorable games: stock market investing for individuals.

Links.

the Long Bet:Buffett vs Protege
[anchor data] Risk and return scatter plot for index funds (click on chart 7).
S&P calculator.
S&P500 chart.
Inflation Adjusted S&P 500.
WolframAlpha shows optimal portfolio.
Modern portfolio theory
Shiller PE ratio.
My review of The Black Swan.
Summary of this lecture.

Books. Most related to the lecture is

Useful for the individual investor: For general interest: Typical introductory textbook on mathematical finance Papers.

Listed roughly in order of relevance to the lecture.

Good and bad properties of the Kelly criterion by Leonard C. MacLean, Edward O. Thorp and William T. Ziemba.
Mutual fund ratings and future performance from Vanguard.
Reading About the Financial Crisis: A 21-Book Review by Andrew W. Lo.
review by David Steinsaltz of the book The Quants by Scott Patterson.
Learning to live with not-so-efficient markets by Luigi Zingales.
Market Risk Premium used in 2010 by Analysts and Companies: a survey with 2,400 answers by Pablo Fernandez and Javier del Campo.
Evaluating Trading Strategies By Campbell Harvey and Yan Liu.
Why are gambling markets organised so differently from financial markets? by Steven D. Levitt.
What is the Difference Between Gambling and Investing? by Thomas Murcko.

Lecture 3: Sports rating models

Links

[anchor data] Football Elo Ratings - National Teams.
Football Club Elo Ratings
Elo Rating system -- Wikipedia description.
TrueSkill Ranking System for Xbox Live.
2014 lecture, based on the Langville - Meyer book below.
Vegas sportsbooks take hit on big day for NFL favorites.

Books.

Undergraduate text using linear algebra:

Statistical theory for the Bradley-Terry model:

Papers mentioned in class.

Elo Ratings and the Sports Model: a Neglected Topic in Applied Probability? by David Aldous.
Trailing the dovetail shuffle to its lair by Dave Bayer and Persi Diaconis.
Statistics-free sports prediction by Alexander Dubbs.

Miscellaneous sports-related papers.

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports has lots of interesting papers.
On Probabilistic Excitement of Sports Games by Jan Vecer et al.
Probability models on horse-race outcomes by Mukhtar Ali.
In-season prediction of batting averages: A field test of empirical Bayes and Bayes methodologies by Lawrence D. Brown.
Modelling football match results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting by John Goddard and Ioannis Asimakopoulos.
A Brownian Motion Model for the Progress of Sports Scores by Hal S. Stern.
Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball by Justin Wolfers.
Getting Your Eye In: A Bayesian Analysis of Early Dismissals in Cricket by Brendon Brewer.
Streaky hitting in baseball by Jim Albert.
An Analysis of the Basketball Endgame: When to Foul When Trailing and Leading by Franklin H. J. Kenter.
A Markovian model for association football possession and its outcomes by Javier LoĢpez Pena.
Vegas sportsbooks take hit on big day for NFL favorites by ESPN.

Lecture 4: Risk to individuals: perception and reality.

Links

Lightning fatalities
WolframAlpha
History of lightning fatalities.
Correlation
Late-onset Alzheimer's genetic testing?
[anchor data] risk perception versus risk data
controllable/observable risks
Media risk coverage
guidance on treatment of the economic value of a statistical life
Wikipedia: value of Life
2845 ways to spin the Risk, from the Understanding uncertainty site. [works on Safari, not on Chrome]
Categorization of risks implicit in The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger.

Books.

Papers.

Listed roughly in order of relevance to the lecture.

Euthanizing the Value of a Statistical Life by Trudy Ann Cameron.
The Value of a Statistical Life: Some Clarifications and Puzzles by Cass Sunstein.
Bacon sandwiches and middle-class drinkers: the risk of communicating risk by David Spiegelhalter.
Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future by David Spiegelhalter and Mike Pearson and Ian Short.
Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics by Gerd Gigerenzer et al.
The Cry Wolf Effect and Weather-Related Decision Making by Jared LeClerc and Susan Joslyn.
The combined effect on survival of four main behavioural risk factors for non-communicable diseases by Eva Martin-Diener et al.
Alcohol: Balancing Risks and Benefits by Harvard School of Public Health.

Lecture 5: Predicting the future: Geopolitics etc.

Links

Predicting the future (1993) by Kevin Kelly and Brian Eno.
the Good Judgment Project
World Economic Forum
Annual Global Risks Reports 2008 2011 2014 2016. 2017. World Economic Forum.
[anchor data] graphic from the 2017 report above

Books.

Papers.

International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War by John Gaddis.
Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence by David Mandel and Alan Barnes.
On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure With Implications For Forecasting Tournaments and Decision Making Research by Nassim Taleb and Philip E. Tetlock.
Future Global Shocks by the OECD (2011).
Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds by National Intelligence Council.
Shifting Gear: policy challenges for the next 50 years by the OECD (2014).
A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis from the CIA site.
Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence by Jeffrey A. Friedman and Richard Zeckhauser.
Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition by Don Moore et al.
How to see into the future by Tim Harford.

Lecture 6: Coincidences, near misses and one-in-a-million chances.

Links

Oakland As active roster.
[anchor data] Cambridge Coincidences Collection.
Cancer kills three 9/11 firefighters on the same day.
Probability of breast cancer in men.
Winning the 1.6 billion Powerball prize is as likely as .....

Books.

Papers.

Methods for Studying Coincidences by Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller.
Fancy Meeting You Here! by G.J. Kirby.
The psychology of the near miss by R.L. Reid.
Near misses in bingo by William Chon.
Should Travelers Avoid Flying Airlines That Have Had Crashes in the Past? by Nate Silver.
Was 2016 especially dangerous for celebrities? An empirical analysis by Jason Crease.

Lecture 7: Game theory.

Links

pogo.com -- Dice City Roller
[anchor data] Data and theory for a Nash equilibrium.
Results of the Least Unique Integer game.

Books.

Papers.

Introducing Nash equilibria via an online casual game which people actually play. Extended write-up of lecture.
Introducing Nash equilibria via an online casual game which people actually play. Published version, somewhat shorter.

A model of human cooperation in social dilemmas by Valerio Capraro.
Testing game theory in the field: Swedish LUPI lottery games by R. Ostling et al.
Evolution of direct reciprocity under uncertainty can explain human generosity in one-shot encounters by Andrew W. Delton and Max M. Krasnow and Leda Cosmides and John Tooby.
Professionals do not play minimax: evidence from Major League Baseball and the National Football League by Kenneth Kovash and Steven D. Levitt.
Ten Little Treasures of Game Theory and Ten Intuitive Contradictions by Jacob K. Goeree and Charles A. Holt.
Early Round Bluffing in Poker by California Jack Cassidy.
Evolutionary cycles of cooperation and defection by Lorens A. Imhof, Drew Fudenberg and Martin A. Nowak.
Self-enforcing strategies to deter free-riding in the climate change mitigation game and other repeated public good games by Jobst Heitzig, Kai Lessmann, and Yong Zou.