Does Treatment Have an Effect?

Surgery for Psychiatric Illness

The next few questions refer to a research article that reports on 34 patients who received brain surgery to treat psychiatric problems. The 34 patients had MRI-guided cingulotomies at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) between May, 1991, and February, 1995, to treat refractory psychiatric disease.

The patients (18 male, 16 female, ages 16-71, mean age 37) all had been referred by their treating psychiatrists. Their cases were reviewed by the MGH Cingulotomy Assessment Committee (comprised principally of a subset of the authors) to become candidates for the procedure. The committee had to agree unanimously that the patient should undergo the procedure, and the patient had to give his or her informed consent. Prerequisites for the committee to favor treatment included patient's resistance to pharmacotherapy, psychotherapy, behavior therapy, and electro-convulsive therapy (when applicable), and the symptoms had to be severe and unremitting for at least one year. All patients had a documented DSM III-R disease that interfered significantly with normal functioning (e.g.., major affective disorder with unipolar depression (10 patients), or bipolar depression (5 patients), undiagnosible developmental disorders (1 patient), and obsessive-compulsive disorder with major depression (15 patients)). For some patients whose condition failed to improve 6 months after surgery, additional cingulotomies were performed.

The cingulotomy procedure is to insert a pair of electrodes into holes drilled in the skull just above the hairline, to a pre-determined position in the brain (guided by MRI). Radio-frequency electricity is passed through the electrodes, to raise the temperature in the part of the brain between the electrodes to 85°C (185°F) for 90 seconds, essentially cooking part of the brain between the electrodes. (This causes what is called a radio-frequency thermocoagulation lesion). The basic procedure was changed in 1993 to include a larger part of the brain.

Of the 34 subjects, 31 were available for follow-up assessment of some sort; of the 31, two had committed suicide. Follow-up assessment was done two ways: either the referring psychiatrist or the treating psychiatrist completed two questionnaires---the Clinical Global Improvement Scale, and the Current, Global, Psychiatric-Social Status Scale---or, if the patient was no longer seeing a psychiatrist, the most recent correspondence with the patient was used to assign ratings. I could not find a reference to the number of patients who were in each of these categories. On the basis of these ratings, each patient was classified as a "responder" (R), a "possible responder" (P), or a "non-responder" (N).

Fourteen of the patients who had not responded six months after the initial procedure had multiple procedures. The categorized responses were as follows:

Cingulotomy outcomes
procedure %R %N
single cingulotomy, procedure 1 (11) 33 33 33
single cingulotomy, procedure 2 (23) 38 0 62
multiple procedures (14 of initial non-responders) 36 36 28
overall (31 patients, single and multiple) 38 23 38

The article breaks down the responses further by type of mental illness.

Alcohol and Heart Disease

The next few questions refer to an hypothetical study of alcohol and heart disease.

I wish to study the effect of daily consumption of small amounts of alcohol (say, two glasses of wine) on the incidence of heart disease. In many European countries, it is customary to drink wine with dinner, while in most Islamic countries, it is not. I therefore decide to compare the average incidence of heart disease for several European countries in which the average daily consumption of wine is two glasses, with the incidence of heart disease in Saudi Arabia, where the consumption of alcohol is negligible (it is a capital offense). Consider the non-drinkers to be the control group, and the drinkers to be the treatment group. Suppose it turns out that the incidence of heart disease is lower in Saudi Arabia.

"The Patch"

This problem refers to an article that studies the effectiveness of nicotine patches for quitting smoking.

It is well known that smoking cigarettes is bad for you. Many smokers try to quit, but quitting can be very difficult. Nicotine patches are a popular medication prescribed by doctors to help people quit smoking. One of the objectives of the study described here was to determine how effective a nicotine patch, combined with the National Cancer Institute program for physician advice and nurse follow-up, is in helping people "stay quit" for a year.

The experimenters solicited volunteers; subjects were selected randomly from the volunteers and screened physically and psychologically. To be eligible for the study, a subject had to be between 20 and 65 years old, had to have smoked at least 20 cigarettes per day for the last year, had to have expired carbon monoxide (CO) levels of 10 parts per million (10 ppm) or more, had to want to stop smoking, had to be in reasonably good health according to a doctor's examination (including blood chemistry, blood cell count, cholesterol and triglyceride levels, urinalysis, and an electrocardiogram; medical history was also checked to make sure that subjects did not have a history of heart trouble or take medications that might have made the patch inadvisable), could not have psychiatric disorder, could have no chemical dependencies other than nicotine, could not consume nicotine in any form other than cigarettes, and could not have participated in previous nicotine patch studies. The researchers enrolled 240 subjects after the screening.

Those subjects were assigned at random either to receive a 22 mg nicotine patch (and physician's advice and nurse follow-up) --- the treatment group --- or to receive a placebo patch (and physician's advice and nurse follow-up) --- the control group. One hundred twenty subjects were assigned to treatment and 120 were assigned to control. Subjects wore patches for 8 weeks.

Nurse follow up was weekly, face-to-face for the first 8 weeks and by phone thereafter. Neither the subjects, the doctors, nor the nurses, knew which subjects wore active patches and which wore placebo patches.

The study classified a subject as having quit smoking if:

  1. the subject reported that he or she had not smoked at all since the last visit, and
  2. the level of CO in the subject's expired air was 8 ppm or less.

Subjects with missing information or who dropped out of the study for any reason were considered smokers.

Here are some characteristics of the two groups after random assignment, but before the treatment began:

Characteristics of Treatment and Control Groups
Characteristic Active Patch Placebo Patch
% female 52 52
% HS graduate or less 46 47
% employed 85 73
% tried to quit previously 89 92
% with other smokers in household 43 36
% treated for depression previously 8 13
mean age 43 44
mean years smoking 24 26
expired CO (ppm) 28 30

In the first eight weeks, 44 subjects dropped out of the study, 19 from the treatment group and 25 from the control group. I could not find information in the paper on the drop out rates after the eighth week (the patch phase of the study).

Here are the results:

Percent nonsmoking since last visit.
after treatment Active Patch Placebo Patch
8-week 47 20
3-month 37 18
6-month 30 16
9-month 32 17
12-month 28 14

Confounding