| Talk, place | Month | Contract | Price (for Yes) | Prediction | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia University Applied Probability seminar | 10/22 | Biden resign before end first term | 22 | No | ??? | |
| "Outside the textbook" popular talk, MSU | 10/18 | Joe Biden Dem. Nominee 2020 | 17 | No | Yes | ✗ |
| "Outside the textbook" popular talk, Notre Dame | 9/18 | Elizabeth Warren Dem. Nominee 2020 | 15 | Yes | No | ✗ |
| STAT 157, Berkeley | 10/17 | Trump President end-2018 | 69 | Yes | Yes | ✓ |
| STAT 157, Berkeley | 3/16 | Trump to be elected President | 32 | Yes | Yes | ✓ |
| "Probability, outside the classroom", UBC Vancouver | 3/16 | Trump to be elected President | 28 | No | Yes | ✗ |
| STAT 24, Berkeley | 10/16 | Clinton to be elected President | 83 | Yes | No | ✗ |
Below are old Intrade prediction market bets. Average profit per trade (Intrade) = 35.
| Talk, place | Month | Contract | Price (for Yes) | Prediction | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAT 150, Berkeley | 3/11 | Trump to run for President | 51 | No | No | ✓ |
| STAT 157, Berkeley | 9/11 | Obama to be re-elected | 49 | Yes | Yes | ✓ |
| Teaching the "real world" course, Marseilles | 12/11 | Any country drop Euro in 2012 | 33 | No | No | ✓ |
| "Real world" popular talk, Oxford | 2/12 | Overt attack on Iran in 2012 | 35 | No | No | ✓ |
| Teaching the "real world" course, Christchurch NZ | 3/12 | Overt attack on Iran in 2012 | 37 | No | No | ✓ |
| Teaching the "real world" course, Santa Barbara CA | 5/12 | Individual mandate ruled unconstitutional in 2012 | 56 | No | No | ✓ |
| Teaching the "real world" course, Stanford | 5/12 | Individual mandate ruled unconstitutional in 2012 | 59 | No | No | ✓ |
| STAT 134, Berkeley | 8/12 | Obama to be re-elected | 57 | No | Yes | ✗ |
| 60'th birthday conference, Courant | 9/12 | Obama to be re-elected | 66 | Yes | Yes | ✓ |