The demographic transition, where birthrates are lowered by increased life
expectancy, seems to be happening faster than the experts have anticipated.
I attribute this apparently precipitous decline in "sustainable"
development to the twin evils of increasing personal freedom and economic
globalization.
Somebody oughta pass a law to prevent those things, of course, before it's
too late. The People's way of life *must* be preserved in its natural,
pre-industrial state, or we'll lose it forever.
;-).
Cheers,
RAH
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/20/science/earth/20POPU.html?pagewanted=print&position=top
The New York Times
August 20, 2002
Experts Scale Back Estimates of World Population Growth
By BARBARA CROSSETTE
Demography has never been an exact science. Ever since social thinkers
began trying to predict the pace of population growth a century or two ago,
the people being counted have been surprising the experts and confounding
projections. Today, it is happening again as stunned demographers watch
birthrates plunge in ways they never expected.
Only a few years ago, some experts argued that economic development and
education for women were necessary precursors for declines in population
growth. Today, village women and slum families in some of the poorest
countries are beginning to prove them wrong, as fertility rates drop faster
than predicted toward the replacement level - 2.1 children for the average
mother, one baby to replace each parent, plus a fraction to compensate for
unexpected deaths in the overall population.
A few decades ago in certain countries like Brazil, Egypt, India and Mexico
fertility rates were as high as five or six.
As a result, United Nations demographers who once predicted the earth's
population would peak at 12 billion over the next century or two are
scaling back their estimates. Instead, they cautiously predict, the world's
population will peak at 10 billion before 2200, when it may begin declining.
Some experts are wary of too much optimism, however. At the Population
Council, an independent research organization in New York, Dr. John
Bongaarts has studied population declines in various countries over the
last half century. He questions the assumption that when fertility declines
begin they will continue to go down at the same pace, especially if good
family planning services are not widely available.
Sharp fertility declines in many industrialized and middle-income countries
had already challenged another old belief: that culture and religion would
thwart efforts to cut fertility. In Italy, a Roman Catholic country whose
big families were the stuff of cinema, family size is shrinking faster than
anywhere else in Europe, and the population is aging rapidly as fewer
children are born. Islamic Iran has also had great success with family
planning.
"Projections aren't terribly accurate over the long haul," said Dr.
Nicholas Eberstadt, a demography expert at the American Enterprise
Institute in Washington. "Demographers have been surprised by just about
every big fertility change in the modern period. Demographers didn't
anticipate the baby boom. They did not anticipate the subsequent decline in
fertility in industrialized Western democracies."
What's next? Demographers can agree generally on a few measurable facts and
some trends. The world's population, now 6.2 billion, quadrupled in the
20th century, and changed in drastic ways. In 1900, 86 percent of the
world's people lived in rural areas and about 14 percent in urban areas. By
2000, urban communities were home to 47 percent of the population, with 53
percent still in the countryside.
Between now and 2030, when the global population is expected to reach about
eight billion, almost all the growth will be in cities. But urbanization is
not necessarily a bad thing for the environment, said Dr. Joseph Chamie,
director of the United Nations' population division.
"Moving to cities frees up the land for forestry, agriculture and many
other activities," Dr. Chamie said. "You're getting people concentrated, so
you can probably recycle more easily. People change their lifestyles. The
Indian moving from the boonies of Uttar Pradesh to the city of Lucknow gets
educational opportunities, cultural opportunities, all sorts of political
participation. He can be influenced by advertising and public relations
campaigns. Immunization will be better, and family planning."
As births fall and lives are extended, the global population is getting
older. The over-80 age group is the fastest growing.
But not everywhere. For example, the United Nations calculates that life
expectancy at birth is being slashed in countries hardest hit by AIDS. In
South Africa, the life of a baby born now should be 66 years; AIDS has cut
that to 47. In Zimbabwe, the drop has been to 43 years from 69. In
Botswana, it is 36 years, down from 70.
Another cautionary sign from projections is that where populations are
continuing to grow fastest, societies and governments may be least likely
to cope with the results, including strains on natural resources -
farmland, water, air, forests and animals.
Last year, the organization published a report and wall chart, "Population,
Environment and Development," plotting and analyzing population changes as
its contribution to the debate surrounding the Johannesburg summit meeting.
The United Nations estimates that the world's current population, 6.2
billion, is growing at an annual rate slightly over 1.2 percent, producing
some 77 million people. Of this growth, 97 percent is taking place in
less-developed countries, said Dr. Chamie, whose position at the United
Nations makes him chief keeper of the world's statistics. Six nations will
dominate this growth, and in this order: India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria,
Bangladesh and Indonesia.
Thus, though fertility is declining unexpectedly in a poor country like
India, which has more than a billion people, the actual numbers continue to
rise rapidly because the base is so large. India is gaining as many people
annually as China, Pakistan and Nigeria combined, the United Nations says.
India is projected to have at least 100 million more people than China by
2050, even if China's one-child policy is relaxed. Small families are now
the norm for the Chinese, whose standard of living has risen above that of
the people of India by many measures.
Among industrialized countries, the United States alone has a growth rate
comparable to that of developing nations. It now ranks seventh in growth,
Dr. Chamie said, but 80 percent of that growth comes from immigration. In
Europe, populations are shrinking, even with more immigration.
With much of the population bulge predicted in Asia, the East-West Center
in Honolulu has just published a report, "The Future of Population in
Asia," which finds cause to fear considerable environmental stress in a
region where population densities and numbers are often great. Asia, the
report notes, already has 56 percent of the world's population living on 31
percent of its arable land, and more than 900 million people exist on less
than $1 a day.
"Asia faces the most acute pressure on arable agricultural land of any
region in the world," the report says, adding that expansion of farmland
has been made at the cost of forests. Acute water scarcity, a significant
loss of biodiversity and more urban pollution seem inevitable. Twelve of
the world's 15 most polluted cities are in Asia. By 2020, the report
predicts, Asia will be producing more carbon dioxide emissions than any
other region.
"When looking at current and future environmental concerns in Asia," the
report concludes, "the number of people to be fed, clothed, housed,
transported, educated and employed may not be the only issue, but it is an
issue that cannot be ignored."
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R. A. Hettinga <mailto: rah@ibuc.com>
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