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TVPredictions.com Newsletter (August 7, 2002)
First of all, I want to welcome those<br>
subscribers who are getting this newsletter<br>
for the first time. Here you will find <br>
on issues related to the future of television.<br>
Whether it's Interactive TV, the battle between<br>
the cable news networks, the latest in <br>
the Emmy race, or the federal government's<br>
fight to promote HDTV, TV Predictions will <br>
give you the scoop -- before it actually <br>
occurs. And, as long-time subscribers<br>
(FYI -- TVPredictions.com, based in Los <br>
Angeles, is owned and managed by Phillip Swann,<br>
author of "TV dot Com: The Future of <br>
Interactive Television." He has been <br>
quoted as an expert on TV issues in publications<br>
such as The Hollywood Reporter, Variety and <br>
Now, in this issue, we offer an all-new edition of...<br>
the Interactive TV Power Rankings! Plus: Why TiVo<br>
desperately needs to boost its sub numbers during<br>
the next five months. And, the latest news on <br>
Every week, we publish the Interactive <br>
TV Power Rankings. We rank the 10 companies<br>
that are benefiting most from the deployment<br>
Will the FCC approve the Echostar-DIRECTV<br>
merger?; why did Cox scale back its Video<br>
on Demand plans?; why did Liberty Media buy<br>
a cable company in the Netherlands?; and <br>
Find out in this all-new edition of...<br>
The next five months could determine whether<br>
TiVo, the Personal Video Recorder service,<br>
TiVo, which launched five years ago, has less <br>
than 500,000 subscribers. The company's stock<br>
dipped below three this week. And network execs<br>
are openly questioning whether the digital recorder,<br>
which permits skipping commercials with a few <br>
clicks of the remote, will destroy their advertising<br>
models. There even have been hints that the <br>
networks could support a move by the cable <br>
industry to offer a PVR that does not permit<br>
commercial skipping. And that PVR would not <br>
To its credit, TiVo has been remarkably successful <br>
at building brand loyalty and awareness. TiVo <br>
reports that 97 percent of its subscribers have<br>
recommended the service to a friend. And when<br>
people talk about PVRs, they say TiVo. (Just <br>
like the way people say "Coke" when they talk<br>
But Wall Street, the media and the industry <br>
are all growing impatient. TiVo needs to start<br>
putting some big numbers on the board -- <br>
and it needs to do it this holiday season. If <br>
it doesn't, stock analysts who have supported TiVo <br>
until now will run for the hills. That will push<br>
the company's stock price down even further. And<br>
if that happens, TiVo could have just two choices:<br>
Sell the company under duress or wait until its <br>
Consequently, I predict that TiVo will launch <br>
an intensive marketing blitz over the next <br>
five months, right through the holiday season.<br>
The blitz will include a sharp increase in <br>
retail distribution, TV advertising and PR <br>
efforts. The company needs to show Wall <br>
Street -- and the industry -- that it will be <br>
the brand leader in the PVR category. And it<br>
Anything short of 750,000 subs at year's end<br>
will have people questioning whether TiVo has<br>
the right stuff. Cable execs, who are watching<br>
TiVo closely, might decide that adding the <br>
service is not such a great selling point <br>
after all. And Echostar, which currently does<br>
not have an agreement with TiVo, may decide<br>
to stay with its unbranded PVR service after <br>
its merger with DIRECTV is approved in D.C. <br>
(TiVo currently has a partnership with DIRECTV,<br>
but it's unclear what will happen to the deal if <br>
So there is much at stake -- and it's not extreme<br>
to say that TiVo's ultimate future could be decided<br>
Will it succeed? I predict that TiVo will achieve<br>
a partial success. The company will boost its <br>
subscriber numbers and it will maintain its claim<br>
as the #1 PVR service. However, in time, I <br>
also predict it will decide to sell the company<br>
to a large media outfit, such as Sony or perhaps<br>
even Liberty Media. This would give TiVo the <br>
necessary funding and industry connections<br>
To see more predictions on the future of TV, <br>
* Cox Cable has decided to slow down its <br>
* Consumers have no idea what HDTV is <br>
all about, according to a new study?<br>
* One top network exec says viewers may <br>
soon have to pay for off-air, free TV? <br>
* According to the Associated Press, <br>
the cable news networks may be spreading fear<br>
* Las Vegas says West Wing's Martin Sheen<br>
is a shoo-in for a Best Actor Emmy? <br>
These are just some of the many stories now <br>
available for reading at TVPredictions.com <br>
You can also read our prediction on CNN and<br>
Larry King, our expose of Forrester Research<br>
and Josh Bernoff, and perhaps our most <br>
provocative story, "Sex and the Interactive <br>
Click below to get the latest on the future of <br>
The TVPredictions.com newsletter is published<br>
every Friday. Coming in future issues:<br>
* Donahue: Will He Survive the Cable News War?<br>
* What's Wrong -- and Right -- With Interactive<br>
* Why HDTV Could Change Hollywood Forever<br>
* Who Will Win the Emmy? An Exclusive Forecast.<br>
And check in daily at TVPredictions.com for more<br>
coverage of issues related to the future of TV. <br>