URL: http://www.joelonsoftware.com/news/20020910.html
Date: Not supplied
Daniel Berlinger has noticed[1] that Mac software shops are starting to move to
OS X-only development. This makes sense, for two reasons. First, most people
who pay for software have new computers. So while OS X may only have a small
fraction of the installed base, it has the majority of the population of people
who are opening their wallets. Second, if OS X isn't successful, the Mac is _
over_. It's not like System 9 is getting any more popular.
Then again, there are very few conditions under which it is actually the right
business decision to develop software for the Macintosh. Developing for the Mac
is not a whole lot different than creating a web site _that only works on
Netscape_. (Given the market share of Macs[2] (about 3.5%) and the market share
of Netscape[3] (about 3.4%), that is not a silly comparison.)
Robb Beal wrote[4]: "Try this test. Go to a venture firm, angel, or big company
with a Mac OS X product/concept/prototype. Do they consider the fact that it's
a Mac application a net plus? (No.)" Well _duh_. Your product would have to
appeal to _25 times more Mac _users_ _[as a percentage] than Windows users just
to break even. In other words, if your Windows product appeals to 1 in 100
Windows users, you have to appeal to 25 in 100 Mac users to make the same
amount of money.
Now, you may want to make an _emotional_ appeal to developing for the Mac.
That's fine. If you like Macs and you're doing it for fun, more power to ya.
But as long as we're talking _investment_, you have to tell me why you're going
to get 25 times as many users. Maybe there's less competition in your category
on the Mac; maybe you're in a niche like graphics where it seems like Macs
dominate (they don't, it just seems that way because the elite graphics people
in big American cities use Macs); maybe your product can't sell to mixed
environments unless it runs everywhere. But if you want to make an investment
in Mac software be prepared to demonstrate how you're going to overcome that
magic 25 multiplier.
[1] http://archipelago.phrasewise.com/2002/09/10
[2] http://maccentral.macworld.com/news/0207/03.marketshare.php
[3] http://websidestory.com/cgi-bin/wss.cgi?corporate&news&press_1_193
[4] http://radio.weblogs.com/0001123/2002/04/10.html