David Aldous's Home Page

Teaching

Semester Course number Topic of course Comments

Fall 2015 STAT 98/198 Introduction to Fundamental Analysis Student-taught DeCal course; I am only the sponsor.

Fall 2015 STAT 150 Stochastic Processes Upper division, for Stat/Math majors and others.

Spring 2016 STAT 157 Probability in the Real World Enrollment requires a pre-quiz: Read this page now.

Here is a complete list of courses since 2001 (only the most recent version of each course is listed).

Semester	Course number	Topic of course	Comments
Fall 2015	STAT 98/198	Introduction to Fundamental Analysis	Student-taught DeCal course; I am only the sponsor.
Fall 2015	STAT 150	Stochastic Processes	Upper division, for Stat/Math majors and others.
Spring 2016	STAT 157	Probability in the Real World	Enrollment requires a pre-quiz: Read this page now.

My Research Site

Short cut to Papers and preprints and to slides from recent talks. And here is a nice overview (written by Lea Popovic) of 3 recent talks.

"Probability and the Real World" project

This is a long-term, and overly ambitious, project to articulate what mathematical probability says about the real world. Some self-contained existing pieces are

A public talk, which changes slightly each time I give it. Currently (May 2015) it is Probability, outside the classroom. Two older versions were:
- (for non-mathematicians) The top ten things that math probability says about the real world. (1/12 version)
- (for mathematicians) Reflections on devising a "probability in the real world" course. (5/12 version)
Non-technical books on probability: list and brief reviews
Undergraduate Research Projects.
My review of The Black Swan.

There is also a lot of material online associated with my junior/senior course From Undergraduate Probability Theory to the Real World . In particular here is a write-up of some Lectures from the 2014 course.

The non-mathematical parts of the project are being developed as a web site, intended as a more idiosyncratic counterpart to two existing sites with somewhat related themes: Understanding Uncertainty and Chance News. The current "beta version" set of pages are sufficiently incomplete and fragmented that I don't want them quoted or linked to; but if you really want to enter the maze at your own risk, start with this cover page to the beta version.

Essays and musings: The blog alternative!

The link goes to brief conceptual pieces, not intended for more formal publication. But not to be outdone by Rick's Ramblings or Terence's Stuff, while notoriously less energetic than either of those monthly authors, let me introduce David's Musings, to appear twice yearly in Bernoulli News.

Popular books on Chance, and Teaching Non-Technical Probability Vol 17, Number 1 (May 2010).
What are the Limits to "Rules Plus Dice" Modeling? Vol 17, Number 2 (November 2010).
In search of a missing word: entropy and ????. Vol 18, Number 1 (May 2011). David Stirzaker pointed out a related discussion by David Ellerman who calls 1-S logical entropy, that I.J. Good has called it the quadratic diversity index, and that and an application to block codes is given in Ahlswede and Cai (2006).
What should our college students know (aside from what we teach them)? Vol 18, Number 2 (November 2011).
On password security, Republican candidates and predictability of economic crises. Vol 19, Number 1 (May 2012).
On suspiciously precise answers to intrinsically imprecise questions Vol 19, Number 2 (November 2012).
Cooper versus Greene, Peters versus Mercator, and Silver versus Big Data Vol 20, Number 1 (May 2013).
Using resources wisely, and the breadth of the mathematical sciences Vol 20, Number 2 (November 2013).
On The Good Judgment Project, and on being the 365,625th most famous person in history. Vol 21, Number 1 (May 2014).
Data Science for everyone, and probability models meet player ratings. Vol 22, Number 1 (May 2015).

Books

Probability Approximations via the Poisson Clumping Heuristic	Springer, 1989
Reversible Markov Chains and Random Walks on Graphs (with Jim Fill)	Draft chapters

Professional Activities

Associate Editor, American Mathematical Monthly.
Chair of committee that awards the biennial Loeve Prize in mathematical probability.
Fellow of the Royal Society
Foreign associate of the National Academy of Sciences
Slides from the talks at the conference on the occasion of Jim Pitman's 65th birthday are available via that link.

Personal stuff

(Warning: this is nerd humor) Big Data: the substitute for Love.	If you assume that higher-profile authors get preferential treatment from journals, read this extract from the referee report on a recent paper of mine.	1976 Cambridge photo
I wish I'd said that	Mathematical humor (original!)	2011 official photo
The nine best science fiction novels you've never heard of	2007 unofficial photo and 2013 unofficial photo	Academic vita
Most ambiguous praise I received in 2009	Impressions from my year at Microsoft Research	Why my wife calls me Le Grand Fromage .......
Obituaries of my parents	In case you doubted the proposition "you can prove anything with Big Data", I have been ranked by this website as the 365,625'th most famous person in history.	..... and the Big Apple.
The three things you need to know for success in the 21st century	40 years playing volleyball; still not perfected the block. (photo credit 555 Photography)

Here is a written interview of me by a non-mathematician. Reporting conversation in print shows that I have an embarrassingly inarticulate stream-of-consciousness speaking style -- do not take these to be my considered opinions! And here is an audio interview of me by a mathematician (Eugene Dynkin) which I haven't heard because I hate hearing myself on tape .....

Contact information

Postal Address: Statistics Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3860
Telephone: 510-642-3295
Fax: 510-642-7892
E-mail address: aldous_AT_stat.berkeley.edu